Future Opportunities

The public sector market for bespoke software is in decline.

Intelligent procurement across Government is leading to the development of shared services which can be reused across departments. Opportunities do exist but these comprise either prototyping new forms of digital engagement using open source software; or digitizing offline processes of which Connected for Health is the multi-billion pound flagship.

In this environment the companies that flourish may be small and innovative or large and strategic. The average digital agency will struggle to match the energy of a creative hotshop with its low operating costs or the breadth of experience of a public sector giant.

New digital specialists are thriving:

• Marcoms agencies – planning and delivering online campaigns
• Product developers – creating games and apps that can be distributed online
• SaaS vendors – reducing the cost and improving the reliability of software
• IT businesses – who support and manage business operations

What is their impact on old ‘new’ media?

The Home Office’s drugs strategy is delivered through Frank a health information campaign delivered across all media. A ‘full service’ digital agency cannot compete with a Marcoms specialist who can obtain better rates for media buying and offset their creative costs against advertising revenue.

Product developers create rich media applications or develop program software for business, education or leisure use. Broadband has revolutionized the distribution model for these products which can be purchased and downloaded directly from the developer. It is difficult for a mid-sized agency to compete against product developers who can spread the cost of development and marketing against sales from their back catalogue.

Platforms, such as Webjam, enable customers to build social platforms, publish content and run their own online business. As open source and licensed software moves digital engagement into the mainstream the demand for custom development falls.

Even the largest IT businesses are vulnerable to the Transformational Government agenda. But they do have business strategy, solution design and operational expertise which will remain in demand as long as public services are contracted to the private sector.

The upside of the continuing financial crisis and pending election is that government is looking at ways to deliver public services more efficiently. Properly valued online tools can reduce costs in untold ways (1 online tax disc renewal = 1 Saturday morning).

Companies who innovate will flourish. Scale is no longer important. The proliferation of public sector tweets is a salutary reminder to those companies who believe they have a grip on Government IT and communications. My advice, invest in the next wave of disruptive technologies.

Healthy Mobiles

There is a role for mobiles in predicting the health of individuals and communities. Three recent projects utilize their desirability and sensitivity to model disease outbreaks and encourage individuals to self-administer complex treatments.

In South Africa, Sense Networks, is planning to use pattern recognition software to analyse the movement of TB patients between neighbourhoods in Johannesburg. It is hoped the characteristics revealed might be used to identify infected individuals in the population.

While epidemiologists study anonymised data to predict future outbreaks healthcare professionals can use mobile technology to motivate individuals to follow treatment using network credits. MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) developed stamp sized litmus paper that displays a code when exposed to urine. Patients who text this code to the XoutTB project are credited with free airtime minutes.

The prevalence of internet enabled mobile devices greatly enhances this channel as a means of distributing information in crises. On Directgov Swine Flu: everything you need to know provides news and practical information on the spread of the H1N1 virus. Should circumstances demand it will be a vital tool in notifying the population where and how to obtain anti-viral medication.

Emotion not reason

The background to the global economic crisis is a salutary reminder that people are driven by emotion not reason. The most sophisticated analysts in the world managed to destroy 40% of the world’s wealth by ignoring this simple truth. Belatedly the Behavioural Economists are being consulted on how to predict future market events. They may not be been able to save the world from recession but they will ameliorate the effects.

Government seeks to influence the public through the provision of information, advice and guidance (IAG). For instance, rising levels of teenage pregnancies (up 2.7% in 2008) demonstrate current strategies are failing to change behaviours amongst target audiences. It is no surprise to Digital Analysts that the IAG model is flawed. The involvement of User Centred Design (UCD) practitioners in the development of web based and mobile media exposes the gap between users expressed desires and their behavior in the real world.

The danger for Government of adopting best practice in the business world is that it applies last year’s maxims. At a time when business is breaking up complex organisations under Transformational Government services are being aggregated. An admirable policy to provide personalized services built around citizens needs has been embraced as a means to reduce costs. The result is portals, such as Directgov and Business Link, are designed to meet the needs of organisations that fund them.

Ironically the technical infrastructure underpinning these portals has been created to support multiple channels. This makes it possible to realize the ambition of Transformational Government to develop e-channels which deliver personalized services. The lesson from the private sector is that conglomerates are not the most efficient businesses. Chaebols which manage restaurants, build washing machines and construct oil platforms cannot hope to focus on individual customers.

Bookcamp

Off to bookcamp on Saturday to discuss the future of the book.

Looking forward to hearing how physical delivery mechanisms affects perceived value, patterns of consumption and structure of content.

My weakness is collecting hardback fiction. I'm seduced by physical objects whose properties influence how and when I read.

If books are luxury objects then e-publication will make books more accessible but less valuable than before. Interested to hear if other attendees think this will threaten the production and marketing of traditional formats such as the novel.

2009 Dakar

It may be the wrong continent but the most exciting (mainly) road race in the world left Buenos Aries today. Will I be there in 2010? The omens are good - I passed my bike test, my partner is on board (she bought Charley Boorman's encouraging account of Dakar 2006) and my favourite South American/road trip movie 'Bring me the Head of Alfredo Garcia' was re-released in cinemas.

See you in Senegal, or the Broom Wagon.